xgEdge

Expected goals

HNK Hajduk Split expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

HNK Hajduk Split's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

HNK Hajduk Split xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.52 xG per match
#3/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
12.15 8 matches
Defence
0.74 xGA per match
#1/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
5.95 8 matches
xG difference
+0.78 xGD per match
#3/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
+6.20 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.93 xPts per match
#3/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
15.45 vs 16 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

HNK Hajduk Split's underlying numbers are among the best in HNL. They rank #3 for xG difference at +0.78 per match, driven by high shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 16 goals are 3.85 above 12.15 xG, while 16 points are 0.55 above 15.45 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.49 xG from penalties
16 12.15 +3.85 scored 3.85 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
8 5.95 +2.05 conceded 2.05 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
16 15.45 +0.55 0.55 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

HNK Hajduk Split are 3.85 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +5.13, against NK Slaven Belupo on Sun 13/09.

Goals
16
xG
12.15
Gap
+3.85
Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Mon 31/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 -0.16 +0.17 +0.97 +3.31 +3.13 +4.81 +5.13 +3.85 -0.16 +0.33 +0.80 +2.34 -0.18 +1.68 +0.32 -1.28 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
HNK Hajduk Split: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 NK Varaždin 1 1.16 -0.16 -0.16
Sun 09/08 NK Istra 1961 2 1.67 +0.33 +0.17
Sun 16/08 HNK Gorica 2 1.20 +0.80 +0.97
Sun 23/08 NK Osijek 4 1.66 +2.34 +3.31
Mon 31/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2 2.18 -0.18 +3.13
Sun 06/09 NK Rudeš 4 2.32 +1.68 +4.81
Sun 13/09 NK Slaven Belupo 1 0.68 +0.32 +5.13
Sun 20/09 HNK Rijeka 0 1.28 -1.28 +3.85

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

HNK Hajduk Split xG trend

Current form +0.87 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 8 matches. The worst was against NK Varaždin on Sun 02/08 (-0.50).

npxG · last 6
1.42
npxGA · last 6
0.55
-1 0 +1 +2 -0.50 Sun 02/08 +0.79 Sun 09/08 +0.72 Sun 16/08 +1.15 Sun 23/08 +1.79 Mon 31/08 +1.41 Sun 06/09 +0.32 Sun 13/09 -0.18 Sun 20/09 +0.69 season avg
HNK Hajduk Split: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 NK Varaždin 0.40 0.90 -0.50 -0.50
Sun 09/08 NK Istra 1961 1.73 0.94 +0.79 +0.15
Sun 16/08 HNK Gorica 1.20 0.48 +0.72 +0.34
Sun 23/08 NK Osijek 1.65 0.50 +1.15 +0.54
Mon 31/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.19 0.40 +1.79 +0.79
Sun 06/09 NK Rudeš 1.53 0.12 +1.41 +0.89
Sun 13/09 NK Slaven Belupo 0.68 0.36 +0.32 +0.81
Sun 20/09 HNK Rijeka 1.28 1.46 -0.18 +0.69

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.33 npxG and 0.65 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 8 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.11 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 8 hardest of 10 in HNL
−0.10 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.11 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 8 hardest of 10

  1. HNK Rijeka Away +0.55
  2. NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.33
  3. NK Rudeš Away −0.51
  4. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  5. NK Osijek Home +0.18
  6. HNK Gorica Away −0.34
  7. NK Istra 1961 Home −0.20
  8. NK Varaždin Away +0.13

Last 5

−0.10 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 10

  1. HNK Rijeka Away +0.55
  2. NK Slaven Belupo Home −0.33
  3. NK Rudeš Away −0.51
  4. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Home −0.39
  5. NK Osijek Home +0.18

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

HNK Hajduk Split shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. HNK Hajduk Split take 15.5 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #4 in HNL for volume and #6 for quality. 57% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 21% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
15.5 shots per match
#4/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
124 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#6/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
10.66 npxG from 124 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
7.5 shots per match
#1/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
60 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#5/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
5.16 npxGA from 60 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

57% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 71 of 124 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 38 of 60 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.2 of 10.8 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 1.0 of 5.2 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

HNK Hajduk Split home and away xG

HNK Hajduk Split per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 4
xG / match 1.55 1.49
xGA / match 0.55 0.94
xGD / match +1.00 +0.55
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.14 1.72

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every HNK Hajduk Split match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
4
xG / match
1.55
xGA / match
0.55
xGD / match
+1.00
Points
10 of 12
  1. Sun 13/09 NK Slaven Belupo H xG 0.68 xGA 0.36 xGD +0.32
  2. Mon 31/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb H xG 2.18 xGA 0.40 xGD +1.78
  3. Sun 23/08 NK Osijek H xG 1.66 xGA 0.50 xGD +1.16
  4. Sun 09/08 NK Istra 1961 H xG 1.67 xGA 0.94 xGD +0.73

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

HNK Hajduk Split in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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