Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 15h to kick-offNK Slaven Belupo – HNK Rijeka
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Slaven Belupo
- 18%
- Draw
- 31%
- HNK Rijeka
- 51%
| NK Slaven Belupo | Draw | HNK Rijeka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.56 | 3.23 | 1.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans HNK Rijeka
51% HNK Rijeka to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- HNK Rijeka attack v NK Slaven Belupo defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 8th
- HNK Rijeka defence v NK Slaven Belupo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.68 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.81 – 1.45
- NK Slaven Belupo v HNK Rijeka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Slaven Belupo | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 8th | (better) 1.65 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.68 · 8th | (better) 0.77 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 8th | (better) +0.88 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 0.93 · 8th | (better) 1.96 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +0.68 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- HNK Rijeka clean sheet
- 41%
- HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 0:1
- 12.7%
- 0:2
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Slaven Belupo sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Rijeka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Slaven Belupo
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · HNK Rijeka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.