Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00
6d 14h to kick-offCercle Brugge – RSC Anderlecht
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Cercle Brugge
- 41%
- Draw
- 29%
- RSC Anderlecht
- 30%
| Cercle Brugge | Draw | RSC Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.44 | 3.46 | 3.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.90
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Cercle Brugge
- Model
- 41.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.9%
- Probability gap
- +14.1 pp
- Edge
- +39.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.44
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.56
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.1%
- Probability gap
- +2.8 pp
- Edge
- +1.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.46
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.63
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
-
RSC Anderlecht
- Model
- 30.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 46.9%
- Probability gap
- −16.8 pp
- Edge
- −41.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.32
- Market odds
- 1.95 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.49
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
Outcomes with value
Cercle Brugge to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
RSC Anderlecht not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Cercle Brugge to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Cercle Brugge to win
Model 41.0% vs. bookmaker 26.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Cercle Brugge
41% Cercle Brugge to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 5th
- Cercle Brugge attack v RSC Anderlecht defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 5th
- Cercle Brugge defence v RSC Anderlecht attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.11 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 1.34
- Cercle Brugge v RSC Anderlecht
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cercle Brugge | RSC Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.69 · 7th | 1.62 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.75 · 12th | (better) 0.87 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.07 · 10th | (better) +0.76 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.25 · 10th | (better) 1.88 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.11 | (better) +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet
- 24%
- Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cercle Brugge sample
- 20 matches
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cercle Brugge
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · RSC Anderlecht
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.