KV Kortrijk 1:0 SK Beveren: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:15

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KV Kortrijk Home 2.25 xG · 20 shots

SK Beveren Away 0.42 xG · 7 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

KV Kortrijk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was KV Kortrijk's attack: 2.25 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.95). SK Beveren produced 0.42 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.81).

Goals

52' Jamie Roche KV Kortrijk · 0.02 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KV Kortrijk: 36% What happened
Draw: 32%
SK Beveren: 32%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KV Kortrijk 1.30 2.25 +0.95

SK Beveren 1.23 0.42 -0.81

KV Kortrijk produced 0.95 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KV Kortrijk SK Beveren

Shots: 20; 7
On target: 4; 1
Inside the box: 14; 6
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.06
Open play xG: 2.13; 0.29
Set-piece xG: 0.12; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.42 for SK Beveren.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.69 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

KV Kortrijk
SK Beveren
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KV Kortrijk

0.78 xG created 2.17 xGA

L 0.86 created, 3.85 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 0.77 created, 1.19 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
L 1.20 created, 1.69 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
L 0.46 created, 1.50 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.55 created, 1.19 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
L 0.81 created, 3.58 conceded against RAAL La Louvière

SK Beveren

1.23 xG created 1.79 xGA

L 0.96 created, 2.20 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
W 0.64 created, 1.27 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
L 0.78 created, 2.62 conceded against SV Zulte Waregem
L 0.61 created, 3.06 conceded against KRC Genk
W 2.68 created, 0.88 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 1.69 created, 0.72 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KV Kortrijk against SK Beveren before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+10.4%	Won
Draw	3.30	+4.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+3.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KV Kortrijk	36.0%	36.1%	−0.0 pp	2.78
Draw	31.5%	27.9%	+3.6 pp	3.17
SK Beveren	32.5%	36.1%	−3.6 pp	3.08

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.4%	58.9%	−1.5 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.6%	41.1%	+1.5 pp	2.35
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	78.3%	−2.2 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	21.7%	+2.2 pp	4.19
Over 2.5 goals	47.4%	55.3%	−7.9 pp	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	52.6%	44.7%	+7.9 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 2 warnings

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KV Kortrijk sample: 6 matches
SK Beveren sample: 6 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

KV Kortrijk has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
SK Beveren has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.