Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 18h to kick-offKV Mechelen – Sint-Truidense VV
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KV Mechelen
- 30%
- Draw
- 30%
- Sint-Truidense VV
- 40%
| KV Mechelen | Draw | Sint-Truidense VV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.28 | 3.35 | 2.52 |
- Total goals
- 2.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sint-Truidense VV
40% Sint-Truidense VV to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 11th
- Sint-Truidense VV attack v KV Mechelen defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 18th
- Sint-Truidense VV defence v KV Mechelen attack
- Recent xG form
- 0.00 vs -0.14
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.47
- KV Mechelen v Sint-Truidense VV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KV Mechelen | Sint-Truidense VV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.22 · 13th | (better) 1.91 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.46 · 8th | 1.84 · 14th |
| xGD / match | -0.24 · 11th | (better) +0.07 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.19 · 12th | (better) 1.44 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.14 | (better) +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Sint-Truidense VV clean sheet
- 25%
- Sint-Truidense VV 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KV Mechelen sample
- 20 matches
- Sint-Truidense VV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KV Mechelen
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Sint-Truidense VV
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.