Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 18h to kick-offKVC Westerlo – Royal Antwerp FC
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KVC Westerlo
- 47%
- Draw
- 27%
- Royal Antwerp FC
- 26%
| KVC Westerlo | Draw | Royal Antwerp FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.11 | 3.74 | 3.88 |
- Total goals
- 3.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans KVC Westerlo
47% KVC Westerlo to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 18th
- KVC Westerlo attack v Royal Antwerp FC defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 10th
- KVC Westerlo defence v Royal Antwerp FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.26 vs -1.33
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.82 – 1.34
- KVC Westerlo v Royal Antwerp FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KVC Westerlo | Royal Antwerp FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.45 · 9th | 1.34 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.81 · 13th | 2.30 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.37 · 13th | -0.97 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.24 · 11th | 1.00 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.25 | -1.33 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet
- 23%
- KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.4%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 7.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KVC Westerlo sample
- 20 matches
- Royal Antwerp FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KVC Westerlo
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Royal Antwerp FC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.