Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 5:2 Cercle Brugge: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 19:15

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise Home 2.02 xG · 24 shots

Cercle Brugge Away 1.23 xG · 6 shots

52 The scoreline reflected the chances

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 50%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was Royale Union Saint-Gilloise's attack: 2.02 xG against 1.68 projected (+0.34).

Goals

24' Steve Ngoura (pen.) Cercle Brugge · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
48' Massire Sylla (o.g.) Cercle Brugge 0–2
49' Raul Florucz Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
62' Massire Sylla Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.16 xG chance 2–2
74' Emmanuel Kakou (o.g.) Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 3–2
80' Relebohile Mofokeng Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.03 xG chance 4–2
90' Kevin Rodriguez Royale Union Saint-Gilloise · 0.31 xG chance 5–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise: 50% What happened
Draw: 28%
Cercle Brugge: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 1.68 2.02 +0.34

Cercle Brugge 1.07 1.23 +0.16

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise produced 0.34 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise Cercle Brugge

Shots: 24; 6
On target: 12; 2
Inside the box: 17; 2
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.21
Open play xG: 1.36; 0.40
Set-piece xG: 0.66; 0.03
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.44 for Cercle Brugge.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 3.27 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

2.21 xG created 1.13 xGA

W 1.60 created, 1.34 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
W 2.49 created, 0.85 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
W 1.24 created, 2.18 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
W 3.27 created, 0.65 conceded against Lommel SK
W 3.34 created, 0.41 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
D 1.29 created, 1.35 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Cercle Brugge

1.14 xG created 1.41 xGA

L 0.76 created, 1.83 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 1.25 created, 1.63 conceded against Lommel SK
L 0.49 created, 1.22 conceded against KAA Gent
D 1.60 created, 0.92 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
L 2.08 created, 2.04 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
L 0.66 created, 0.83 conceded against RSC Anderlecht

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 qualified edges flagged3 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Royale Union Saint-Gilloise against Cercle Brugge before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score	10.00	+61.7%	Lost
Cercle Brugge to win	7.50	+59.2%	Lost
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal	3.00	+44.6%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+34.3%	Lost
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals	4.33	+26.2%	Won
Cercle Brugge to score	1.67	+14.5%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+12.0%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.50	+9.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+6.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	50.5%	68.6%	−18.1 pp	1.98
Draw	28.3%	19.2%	+9.0 pp	3.54
Cercle Brugge	21.2%	12.2%	+9.0 pp	4.71

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise to score	83.8%	90.4%	−6.6 pp	1.19
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise not to score	16.2%	9.6%	+6.6 pp	6.19
Cercle Brugge to score	68.7%	55.7%	+12.9 pp	1.46
Cercle Brugge not to score	31.3%	44.3%	−12.9 pp	3.19
Both teams to score	59.2%	52.0%	+7.2 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.8%	48.0%	−7.2 pp	2.45
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals	51.8%	68.7%	−17.0 pp	1.93
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at most 1 goal	48.2%	31.3%	+17.0 pp	2.07
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals	29.1%	21.7%	+7.4 pp	3.43
Cercle Brugge at most 1 goal	70.9%	78.3%	−7.4 pp	1.41
Over 1.5 goals	80.2%	82.8%	−2.6 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	19.8%	17.2%	+2.6 pp	5.04
Over 2.5 goals	53.3%	61.0%	−7.7 pp	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	46.7%	39.0%	+7.7 pp	2.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise sample: 20 matches
Cercle Brugge sample: 20 matches
Computed: 44 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.