Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 21:00
16d 22h to kick-offAtlético Madrid – Deportivo La Coruña
Model updated 7 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Atlético Madrid
- 58%
- Draw
- 27%
- Deportivo La Coruña
- 15%
| Atlético Madrid | Draw | Deportivo La Coruña | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.71 | 3.76 | 6.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Atlético Madrid
58% Atlético Madrid to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 12th
- Atlético Madrid attack v Deportivo La Coruña defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 15th
- Atlético Madrid defence v Deportivo La Coruña attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.06
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.77 – 0.86
- Atlético Madrid v Deportivo La Coruña
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Atlético Madrid | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.72 · 4th | 0.97 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 1st | 1.15 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.70 · 4th | -0.18 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.86 · 4th | 1.14 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.69 | -0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Atlético Madrid clean sheet
- 40%
- Atlético Madrid 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 11.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Deportivo La Coruña sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Atlético Madrid
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Deportivo La Coruña
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- Deportivo La Coruña has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.