Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Atlético Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Atlético Madrid
- 52%
- Draw
- 28%
- Rayo Vallecano
- 20%
| Atlético Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.93 | 3.59 | 4.91 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Atlético Madrid
52% Atlético Madrid to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- Atlético Madrid attack v Rayo Vallecano defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- Atlético Madrid defence v Rayo Vallecano attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.06
- Atlético Madrid v Rayo Vallecano
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Atlético Madrid | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.72 · 4th | 1.27 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 1st | 1.76 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.70 · 4th | -0.50 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.86 · 4th | 1.12 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.69 | -0.53 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Atlético Madrid clean sheet
- 32%
- Atlético Madrid 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Atlético Madrid
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Rayo Vallecano
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.