Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 20:00
28d 20h to kick-offRayo Vallecano – Celta Vigo
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Rayo Vallecano
- 54%
- Draw
- 29%
- Celta Vigo
- 17%
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.84 | 3.49 | 5.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Rayo Vallecano
54% Rayo Vallecano to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 11th
- Rayo Vallecano attack v Celta Vigo defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 19th
- Rayo Vallecano defence v Celta Vigo attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.53 vs -0.31
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 0.87
- Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.27 · 10th | 1.01 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 1.76 · 16th | (better) 1.26 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.50 · 13th | (better) -0.26 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.12 · 16th | (better) 1.28 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.53 | (better) -0.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet
- 39%
- Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 1:0
- 11.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rayo Vallecano sample
- 20 matches
- Celta Vigo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rayo Vallecano
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Celta Vigo
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.