Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 20:45
13d 20h to kick-offLille – Stade Brestois
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lille
- 39%
- Draw
- 32%
- Stade Brestois
- 29%
| Lille | Draw | Stade Brestois | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.59 | 3.09 | 3.45 |
- Total goals
- 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lille
39% Lille to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 7th
- Lille attack v Stade Brestois defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 6th
- Lille defence v Stade Brestois attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.11 vs +0.78
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.10
- Lille v Stade Brestois
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lille | Stade Brestois |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.39 · 14th | (better) 1.94 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.75 · joint 10th | (better) 1.19 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.36 · 12th | (better) +0.75 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.23 · 10th | (better) 1.78 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.11 | (better) +0.78 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Lille clean sheet
- 30%
- Lille 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 0:0
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lille sample
- 20 matches
- Stade Brestois sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lille
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Stade Brestois
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.