AS Trenčín 1:4 DAC 1904: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

AS Trenčín Home 2.42 xG

DAC 1904 Away 2.49 xG

14 The chances were evenly matched

DAC 1904 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was AS Trenčín's attack: 2.42 xG against 1.57 projected (+0.85). DAC 1904 produced 2.49 xG against 2.00 projected (+0.49).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AS Trenčín: 28%
Draw: 25%
DAC 1904: 47% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AS Trenčín 1.57 2.42 +0.85

DAC 1904 2.00 2.49 +0.49

AS Trenčín produced 0.85 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AS Trenčín DAC 1904

Shots: 15; 12
On target: 7; 6
Inside the box: 10; 10
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.21

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AS Trenčín

1.76 xG created 2.07 xGA

W 1.57 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Košice
D 0.61 created, 2.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.80 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
L 1.44 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 2.78 created, 1.87 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
L 2.35 created, 1.96 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce

DAC 1904

1.85 xG created 1.18 xGA

L 1.61 created, 1.32 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
W 1.43 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
D 1.21 created, 2.41 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
W 2.68 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
W 2.23 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
W 1.91 created, 0.35 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AS Trenčín: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AS Trenčín against DAC 1904 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AS Trenčín to win	5.04	+42.5%	Lost
Draw	4.53	+13.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AS Trenčín	28.3%	18.7%	+9.6 pp	3.54
Draw	25.0%	20.8%	+4.2 pp	4.00
DAC 1904	46.7%	60.5%	−13.8 pp	2.14

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AS Trenčín sample: 20 matches
DAC 1904 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 3 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.