Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeFC Spartak Trnava 5:2 FC Košice
FC Spartak Trnava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 64%. They won 5–2.
The model against the result
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 64% What happened
- Draw
- 21%
- FC Košice
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.37 xG created 1.06 xGA
- W 2.62 created, 1.10 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 1.31 created, 1.43 conceded against DAC 1904
- W 1.92 created, 1.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
- W 3.82 created, 0.56 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
- W 2.73 created, 0.26 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- W 1.82 created, 1.44 conceded against AS Trenčín
1.83 xG created 2.30 xGA
- W 2.16 created, 2.30 conceded against KFC Komárno
- L 2.04 created, 1.57 conceded against AS Trenčín
- W 0.93 created, 2.43 conceded against MFK Skalica
- L 0.92 created, 4.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- D 2.51 created, 2.44 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 2.41 created, 0.40 conceded against Dukla Banská Bystrica
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Spartak Trnava 2+ goals | 1.67 | +21.2% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +16.1% | Won |
| FC Spartak Trnava to win | 1.80 | +14.9% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +10.3% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +6.6% | Won |
| FC Spartak Trnava to score | 1.14 | +6.3% | Won |
| FC Košice to score | 1.36 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Spartak Trnava | 63.8% | 52.6% | +11.2 pp | 1.57 |
| Draw | 20.7% | 23.7% | −2.9 pp | 4.82 |
| FC Košice | 15.4% | 23.7% | −8.2 pp | 6.48 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Spartak Trnava to score | 93.0% | 81.4% | +11.6 pp | 1.08 |
| FC Spartak Trnava not to score | 7.0% | 18.6% | −11.6 pp | 14.27 |
| FC Košice to score | 74.5% | 68.7% | +5.7 pp | 1.34 |
| FC Košice not to score | 25.5% | 31.3% | −5.7 pp | 3.91 |
| Both teams to score | 70.2% | 58.9% | +11.4 pp | 1.42 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.8% | 41.1% | −11.4 pp | 3.36 |
| FC Spartak Trnava 2+ goals | 72.7% | 55.7% | +17.0 pp | 1.37 |
| FC Spartak Trnava at most 1 goal | 27.3% | 44.3% | −17.0 pp | 3.67 |
| FC Košice 2+ goals | 36.4% | 35.5% | +1.0 pp | 2.74 |
| FC Košice at most 1 goal | 63.6% | 64.5% | −1.0 pp | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.4% | 79.4% | +12.0 pp | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.6% | 20.6% | −12.0 pp | 11.59 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.9% | 58.9% | +15.0 pp | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.1% | 41.1% | −15.0 pp | 3.83 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.