Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFK Železiarne Podbrezová 1:1 KFC Komárno
FK Železiarne Podbrezová were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1.
The model against the result
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- 44%
- Draw
- 27% What happened
- KFC Komárno
- 29%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.47 xG created 1.99 xGA
- L 1.10 created, 1.95 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 1.63 created, 0.30 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- L 0.98 created, 3.14 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- W 2.16 created, 1.80 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 0.49 created, 2.23 conceded against DAC 1904
- D 2.44 created, 2.51 conceded against FC Košice
1.71 xG created 1.29 xGA
- D 2.59 created, 0.61 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 1.59 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- D 1.21 created, 0.65 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.21 created, 2.68 conceded against DAC 1904
- L 1.04 created, 1.54 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- D 2.63 created, 0.34 conceded against MFK Skalica
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFC Komárno 2+ goals | 2.50 | +10.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +6.3% | Won |
| KFC Komárno to win | 3.60 | +6.1% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | +4.1% | Lost |
| KFC Komárno to score | 1.30 | +3.4% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová | 43.8% | 48.3% | −4.6 pp | 2.29 |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.5% | +1.3 pp | 3.74 |
| KFC Komárno | 29.5% | 26.2% | +3.3 pp | 3.39 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová to score | 85.5% | 81.4% | +4.1 pp | 1.17 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová not to score | 14.5% | 18.6% | −4.1 pp | 6.89 |
| KFC Komárno to score | 79.5% | 72.3% | +7.2 pp | 1.26 |
| KFC Komárno not to score | 20.5% | 27.7% | −7.2 pp | 4.89 |
| Both teams to score | 69.4% | 60.8% | +8.6 pp | 1.44 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.6% | 39.2% | −8.6 pp | 3.27 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová 2+ goals | 55.1% | 53.7% | +1.4 pp | 1.82 |
| FK Železiarne Podbrezová at most 1 goal | 44.9% | 46.3% | −1.4 pp | 2.23 |
| KFC Komárno 2+ goals | 44.3% | 37.5% | +6.8 pp | 2.26 |
| KFC Komárno at most 1 goal | 55.7% | 62.5% | −6.8 pp | 1.80 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | 79.4% | +7.7 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.9% | 20.6% | −7.7 pp | 7.74 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 59.0% | +6.1 pp | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 41.0% | −6.1 pp | 2.86 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Železiarne Podbrezová sample
- 20 matches
- KFC Komárno sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.