FK Septemvri Sofia 0:3 Botev Plovdiv: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

FK Septemvri Sofia Home 1.08 xG

Botev Plovdiv Away 1.53 xG

03 The scoreline reflected the chances

Botev Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Septemvri Sofia: 22%
Draw: 33%
Botev Plovdiv: 45% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Septemvri Sofia 0.87 1.08 +0.21

Botev Plovdiv 1.30 1.53 +0.23

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Septemvri Sofia Botev Plovdiv

Shots: 13; 11
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 4; 7
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Septemvri Sofia

0.89 xG created 1.04 xGA

D 1.39 created, 0.66 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
L 0.12 created, 2.38 conceded against Levski Sofia
W 1.04 created, 0.73 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
W 0.49 created, 1.03 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
D 0.95 created, 0.46 conceded against Slavia Sofia
L 1.37 created, 0.99 conceded against Botev Vratsa

Botev Plovdiv

1.51 xG created 1.07 xGA

L 2.39 created, 1.54 conceded against CSKA Sofia
W 2.29 created, 0.25 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.81 created, 2.58 conceded against Ludogorets
L 0.77 created, 0.54 conceded against Botev Vratsa
L 1.72 created, 0.66 conceded against Levski Sofia
W 1.05 created, 0.87 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Septemvri Sofia: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Septemvri Sofia against Botev Plovdiv before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	1.85	+16.1%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	3.50	+12.0%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+11.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Septemvri Sofia	22.1%	23.7%	−1.6 pp	4.53
Draw	32.9%	27.8%	+5.1 pp	3.04
Botev Plovdiv	45.0%	48.5%	−3.5 pp	2.22

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	47.9%	50.0%	−2.1 pp	2.09
Both teams not to score	52.1%	50.0%	+2.1 pp	1.92
Over 1.5 goals	68.0%	73.1%	−5.1 pp	1.47
Under 1.5 goals	32.0%	26.9%	+5.1 pp	3.12
Over 2.5 goals	37.3%	48.7%	−11.4 pp	2.68
Under 2.5 goals	62.7%	51.3%	+11.4 pp	1.59

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Septemvri Sofia sample: 20 matches
Botev Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.