Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:00
7d 12h to kick-offFK Septemvri Sofia – FK Dunav Ruse
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 40%
- Draw
- 34%
- FK Dunav Ruse
- 26%
| FK Septemvri Sofia | Draw | FK Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.51 | 2.97 | 3.78 |
- Total goals
- 2.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
FK Septemvri Sofia
- Model
- 39.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 43.0%
- Probability gap
- −3.2 pp
- Edge
- −16.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.51
- Market odds
- 2.10 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.64
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 33.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.8%
- Probability gap
- +5.9 pp
- Edge
- +9.6%
- Fair odds
- 2.97
- Market odds
- 3.25 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.11
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
-
FK Dunav Ruse
- Model
- 26.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.2%
- Probability gap
- −2.7 pp
- Edge
- −17.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.78
- Market odds
- 3.10 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.97
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.6%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans FK Septemvri Sofia
40% FK Septemvri Sofia to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 11th
- FK Septemvri Sofia attack v FK Dunav Ruse defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 8th
- FK Septemvri Sofia defence v FK Dunav Ruse attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.35 vs -1.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 0.97
- FK Septemvri Sofia v FK Dunav Ruse
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Septemvri Sofia | FK Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.92 · 12th | (better) 1.16 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.11 · 6th | 2.31 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.19 · 8th | -1.16 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.28 · 7th | 0.63 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.35 | -1.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- FK Septemvri Sofia clean sheet
- 35%
- FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 1:0
- 11.3%
- 0:0
- 11.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- FK Dunav Ruse sample
- 6 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Septemvri Sofia
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Dunav Ruse
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- FK Dunav Ruse has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.