Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:45
8d 19h to kick-offBohemian FC – Waterford FC
Model updated 8 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bohemian FC
- 52%
- Draw
- 25%
- Waterford FC
- 23%
| Bohemian FC | Draw | Waterford FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.91 | 4.05 | 4.36 |
- Total goals
- 3.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bohemian FC
52% Bohemian FC to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 6th
- Bohemian FC attack v Waterford FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 3rd
- Bohemian FC defence v Waterford FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.74 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.05 – 1.37
- Bohemian FC v Waterford FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bohemian FC | Waterford FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 2nd | 1.40 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 2nd | 1.77 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.54 · 2nd | -0.38 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.75 · 2nd | 1.17 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.74 | +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Bohemian FC clean sheet
- 23%
- Bohemian FC 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.8%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 2:2
- 7.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bohemian FC
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Waterford FC
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.