Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:45
11d 3h to kick-offDrogheda United – Derry City
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Drogheda United
- 27%
- Draw
- 31%
- Derry City
- 41%
| Drogheda United | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.64 | 3.22 | 2.41 |
- Total goals
- 2.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Derry City
41% Derry City to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 7th
- Derry City attack v Drogheda United defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 9th
- Derry City defence v Drogheda United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.10 vs -0.85
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.13 – 1.40
- Drogheda United v Derry City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Drogheda United | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.16 · 9th | (better) 1.18 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.60 · 8th | (better) 1.18 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.44 · 9th | (better) +0.01 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.10 · 9th | (better) 1.37 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.85 | (better) +0.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Derry City clean sheet
- 30%
- Derry City 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 0:1
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Derry City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Drogheda United
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Derry City
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.