Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 20:45
12d 2h to kick-offSligo Rovers – Dundalk FC
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sligo Rovers
- 25%
- Draw
- 26%
- Dundalk FC
- 49%
| Sligo Rovers | Draw | Dundalk FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.06 | 3.85 | 2.02 |
- Total goals
- 3.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dundalk FC
49% Dundalk FC to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- Dundalk FC attack v Sligo Rovers defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 10th
- Dundalk FC defence v Sligo Rovers attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.56 vs -1.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.35 – 1.90
- Sligo Rovers v Dundalk FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sligo Rovers | Dundalk FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.03 · 10th | (better) 1.57 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 10th | (better) 1.58 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.85 · 10th | (better) -0.01 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 0.87 · 10th | (better) 1.35 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.19 | (better) -0.56 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Dundalk FC clean sheet
- 23%
- Dundalk FC 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 1:2
- 10.8%
- 2:2
- 7.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sligo Rovers
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Dundalk FC
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.