xgEdge

Every Premier League match still to be played this season, soonest first, with the xG the model projects for each side and its home, draw and away probabilities.

  • Home
  • Draw
  • Away
Tight Within 3 points either way Clear favourite 55% or more Form, oldest → newest: W D L

Saturday, 21/11/2026

7 matches
  • Manchester City Manchester City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Win
    Fulham Fulham, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw
    Projected xG 1.93 – 1.27
    →
  • Bournemouth Bournemouth, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.54 – 1.16
    →
  • Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Ipswich Town Ipswich Town, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.46 – 1.27
    →
  • Coventry City Coventry City, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win
    Crystal Palace Crystal Palace, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw
    Projected xG 1.42 – 1.17
    →
  • Chelsea Chelsea, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Leeds United Leeds United, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw
    Projected xG 1.56 – 1.19
    →
  • Aston Villa Aston Villa, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Sunderland Sunderland, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.34 – 1.41
    →
  • Newcastle United Newcastle United, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win
    Arsenal Arsenal, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 0.95 – 1.55
    →

Sunday, 22/11/2026

2 matches
  • Hull City Hull City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.39 – 1.50
    →
  • Liverpool Liverpool, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Manchester United Manchester United, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw
    Projected xG 1.43 – 1.40
    Tight
    →

Monday, 23/11/2026

1 match
  • Brentford Brentford, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Everton Everton, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.66 – 1.32
    →

Friday, 27/11/2026

1 match
  • Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss
    Chelsea Chelsea, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.50 – 1.26
    →

Saturday, 28/11/2026

3 matches
  • Manchester United Manchester United, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw
    Brentford Brentford, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.93 – 1.20
    →
  • Leeds United Leeds United, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw
    Coventry City Coventry City, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.50 – 1.14
    →
  • Ipswich Town Ipswich Town, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss
    Aston Villa Aston Villa, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.67 – 1.26
    →

Sunday, 29/11/2026

6 matches
  • Everton Everton, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Liverpool Liverpool, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.40 – 1.35
    Tight
    →
  • Crystal Palace Crystal Palace, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw
    Hull City Hull City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.34 – 1.18
    →
  • Sunderland Sunderland, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss
    Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.56 – 1.07
    →
  • Fulham Fulham, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw
    Bournemouth Bournemouth, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.49 – 1.36
    →
  • Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win
    Newcastle United Newcastle United, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 2.16 – 1.13
    Clear favourite
    →
  • Arsenal Arsenal, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Manchester City Manchester City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.52 – 1.09
    →

Wednesday, 02/12/2026

10 matches
  • Chelsea Chelsea, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Crystal Palace Crystal Palace, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw
    Projected xG 1.60 – 1.13
    →
  • Bournemouth Bournemouth, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.59 – 1.42
    →
  • Coventry City Coventry City, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win
    Ipswich Town Ipswich Town, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.51 – 1.34
    →
  • Hull City Hull City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.35 – 1.22
    →
  • Liverpool Liverpool, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Sunderland Sunderland, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.54 – 1.19
    →
  • Aston Villa Aston Villa, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Everton Everton, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.42 – 1.38
    Tight
    →
  • Brentford Brentford, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Arsenal Arsenal, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.14 – 1.36
    →
  • Manchester City Manchester City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Win
    Leeds United Leeds United, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw
    Projected xG 1.87 – 1.14
    →
  • Newcastle United Newcastle United, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win
    Manchester United Manchester United, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw
    Projected xG 1.21 – 1.83
    →
  • Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Fulham Fulham, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw
    Projected xG 1.39 – 1.30
    →

Saturday, 05/12/2026

10 matches
  • Manchester United Manchester United, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw
    Coventry City Coventry City, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.95 – 1.02
    Clear favourite
    →
  • Newcastle United Newcastle United, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win
    Sunderland Sunderland, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss
    Projected xG 1.31 – 1.55
    →
  • Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss
    Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.50 – 1.48
    Tight
    →
  • Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Arsenal Arsenal, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 0.94 – 1.29
    →
  • Leeds United Leeds United, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw
    Ipswich Town Ipswich Town, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.57 – 1.28
    →
  • Everton Everton, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Fulham Fulham, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw
    Projected xG 1.60 – 1.35
    →
  • Chelsea Chelsea, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Liverpool Liverpool, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.41 – 1.33
    →
  • Brentford Brentford, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Manchester City Manchester City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Win
    Projected xG 1.56 – 1.60
    Tight
    →
  • Bournemouth Bournemouth, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Hull City Hull City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.56 – 1.08
    →
  • Aston Villa Aston Villa, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Crystal Palace Crystal Palace, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw
    Projected xG 1.43 – 1.22
    →

Saturday, 12/12/2026

10 matches
  • Sunderland Sunderland, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss
    Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Win, Loss
    Projected xG 1.54 – 1.19
    →
  • Ipswich Town Ipswich Town, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Loss, Win, Loss
    Newcastle United Newcastle United, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Win, Draw, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.83 – 1.23
    →
  • Hull City Hull City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.37 – 1.10
    →
  • Fulham Fulham, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw
    Brentford Brentford, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.65 – 1.39
    →
  • Crystal Palace Crystal Palace, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Win, Loss, Draw
    Manchester United Manchester United, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Win, Draw, Loss, Draw
    Projected xG 1.22 – 1.59
    →
  • Coventry City Coventry City, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Win
    Aston Villa Aston Villa, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win
    Projected xG 1.49 – 1.20
    →
  • Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion, last league results, oldest first: Win, Loss, Draw, Win, Win
    Everton Everton, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, Win
    Projected xG 1.87 – 1.28
    →
  • Arsenal Arsenal, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss
    Bournemouth Bournemouth, last league results, oldest first: Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.49 – 0.92
    →
  • Liverpool Liverpool, last league results, oldest first: Draw, Draw, Win, Draw, Win
    Leeds United Leeds United, last league results, oldest first: Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Draw
    Projected xG 1.60 – 1.08
    →
  • Manchester City Manchester City, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Win, Win, Win
    Chelsea Chelsea, last league results, oldest first: Win, Win, Loss, Draw, Loss
    Projected xG 1.87 – 1.24
    →

Probabilities and projected xG are model estimates, rounded so the three add to 100. They read shot quality over recent matches and know nothing about injuries, suspensions or motivation.