xgEdge

Expected goals

Newcastle United expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Newcastle United's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Newcastle United xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.07 xG per match
#17/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
5.33 5 matches
Defence
1.83 xGA per match
#18/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
9.14 5 matches
xG difference
-0.76 xGD per match
#19/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
-3.81 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.82 xPts per match
#20/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
4.08 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Newcastle United's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Premier League. They rank #19 for xG difference at -0.76 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 9 goals are 3.67 above 5.33 xG, while 8 points are 3.92 above 4.08 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.01 xG from penalties
9 5.33 +3.67 scored 3.67 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 9.14 -0.14 conceded 0.14 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 4.08 +3.92 3.92 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Newcastle United are 3.67 goals above their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
9
xG
5.33
Gap
+3.67
Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +0.42 +1.70 +2.99 +3.11 +3.67 +0.42 +1.28 +1.29 +0.12 +0.56 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Newcastle United: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 23/08 Liverpool 2 1.58 +0.42 +0.42
Sat 29/08 Tottenham Hotspur 2 0.72 +1.28 +1.70
Sat 05/09 Bournemouth 2 0.71 +1.29 +2.99
Mon 14/09 Leeds United 1 0.88 +0.12 +3.11
Sat 19/09 Hull City 2 1.44 +0.56 +3.67

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Newcastle United xG trend

Current form -0.71 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 0 of 5 matches. The worst was against Leeds United on Mon 14/09 (-1.16).

npxG · last 5
0.86
npxGA · last 5
1.57
-2 -1 0 +1 -0.52 Sun 23/08 -0.29 Sat 29/08 -0.98 Sat 05/09 -1.16 Mon 14/09 -0.60 Sat 19/09 -0.71 season avg
Newcastle United: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 23/08 Liverpool 1.42 1.94 -0.52 -0.52
Sat 29/08 Tottenham Hotspur 0.75 1.04 -0.29 -0.41
Sat 05/09 Bournemouth 0.66 1.64 -0.98 -0.60
Mon 14/09 Leeds United 0.85 2.01 -1.16 -0.74
Sat 19/09 Hull City 0.64 1.24 -0.60 -0.71

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.86 npxG and 1.57 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 13 hardest of 20 in Premier League
−0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 13 hardest of 20

  1. Hull City Home −0.14
  2. Leeds United Away −0.11
  3. Bournemouth Home +0.11
  4. Tottenham Hotspur Away −0.18
  5. Liverpool Home +0.17

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Newcastle United shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Newcastle United take 10.2 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =18 in Premier League for volume and #17 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 25% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.2 shots per match
=18/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
51 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#17/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
4.32 npxG from 51 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
19.6 shots per match
#20/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
98 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#3/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
7.87 npxGA from 98 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 31 of 51 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

58% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 57 of 98 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

75% open play · 25% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.1 of 4.3 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

75% open play · 25% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 2.0 of 7.7 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Newcastle United home and away xG

Newcastle United per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 1.24 0.80
xGA / match 1.98 1.60
xGD / match -0.74 -0.80
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.87 0.74

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Newcastle United match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
3
xG / match
1.24
xGA / match
1.98
xGD / match
-0.74
Points
5 of 9
  1. Sat 19/09 Hull City H xG 1.44 P xGA 1.59 xGD -0.15
  2. Sat 05/09 Bournemouth H xG 0.71 xGA 1.37 xGD -0.66
  3. Sun 23/08 Liverpool H xG 1.58 xGA 2.98 P xGD -1.40

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Newcastle United in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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