xgEdge

Expected goals

Nottingham Forest expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Premier League · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

Nottingham Forest's attacking and defensive expected goals in Premier League 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Nottingham Forest xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.45 xG per match
#13/20
Attack (xG per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Brighton & Hove Albion 2.31
#2 Manchester City 2.10
#3 Brentford 1.96
#4 Manchester United 1.93
#5 Sunderland 1.90
#6 Arsenal 1.70
#7 Liverpool 1.67
#8 Fulham 1.56
#9 Leeds United 1.56
#10 Ipswich Town 1.53
#11 Chelsea 1.47
#12 Everton 1.46
#13 Nottingham Forest 1.45
#14 Bournemouth 1.34
#15 Crystal Palace 1.25
#16 Hull City 1.10
#17 Newcastle United 1.07
#18 Tottenham Hotspur 1.00
#19 Coventry City 0.97
#20 Aston Villa 0.91
League avg
1.51
Total
7.26 5 matches
Defence
0.95 xGA per match
#2/20
Defence (xGA per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Arsenal 0.81
#2 Nottingham Forest 0.95
#3 Liverpool 1.22
#4 Brentford 1.26
#5 Leeds United 1.27
#6 Everton 1.39
#7 Bournemouth 1.39
#8 Manchester United 1.40
#9 Manchester City 1.45
#10 Hull City 1.48
#11 Tottenham Hotspur 1.56
#12 Coventry City 1.73
#13 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.74
#14 Sunderland 1.75
#15 Ipswich Town 1.75
#16 Fulham 1.77
#17 Chelsea 1.78
#18 Newcastle United 1.83
#19 Aston Villa 1.84
#20 Crystal Palace 1.89
League avg
1.51
Total
4.77 5 matches
xG difference
+0.50 xGD per match
#6/20
xG difference (xGD per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Arsenal +0.89
#2 Brentford +0.70
#3 Manchester City +0.65
#4 Brighton & Hove Albion +0.57
#5 Manchester United +0.53
#6 Nottingham Forest +0.50
#7 Liverpool +0.45
#8 Leeds United +0.29
#9 Sunderland +0.15
#10 Everton +0.08
#11 Bournemouth -0.05
#12 Fulham -0.21
#13 Ipswich Town -0.22
#14 Chelsea -0.31
#15 Hull City -0.37
#16 Tottenham Hotspur -0.56
#17 Crystal Palace -0.64
#18 Coventry City -0.75
#19 Newcastle United -0.76
#20 Aston Villa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
+2.49 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.72 xPts per match
#3/20
Expected points (xPts per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Arsenal 2.07
#2 Manchester City 1.87
#3 Nottingham Forest 1.72
#4 Liverpool 1.69
#5 Brentford 1.66
#6 Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62
#7 Manchester United 1.60
#8 Leeds United 1.55
#9 Sunderland 1.47
#10 Everton 1.45
#11 Ipswich Town 1.41
#12 Bournemouth 1.39
#13 Tottenham Hotspur 1.17
#14 Fulham 1.17
#15 Chelsea 1.16
#16 Hull City 1.09
#17 Crystal Palace 0.95
#18 Aston Villa 0.90
#19 Coventry City 0.87
#20 Newcastle United 0.82
League avg
1.38
Total
8.59 vs 5 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Nottingham Forest's underlying numbers are among the best in Premier League. They rank #6 for xG difference at +0.50 per match, built on elite shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 4 goals are 3.26 below 7.26 xG, while 5 points are 3.59 below 8.59 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.38 xG from penalties
4 7.26 -3.26 scored 3.26 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
5 4.77 +0.23 conceded 0.23 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 8.59 -3.59 3.59 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Nottingham Forest are 3.26 goals below their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
4
xG
7.26
Gap
-3.26
Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.66 -0.96 -1.88 -2.16 -3.26 -0.66 -0.30 -0.92 -0.28 -1.10 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Nottingham Forest: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 22/08 Leeds United 0 0.66 -0.66 -0.66
Sat 29/08 Liverpool 2 2.30 -0.30 -0.96
Sat 05/09 Tottenham Hotspur 0 0.92 -0.92 -1.88
Sat 12/09 Aston Villa 2 2.28 -0.28 -2.16
Sat 19/09 Coventry City 0 1.10 -1.10 -3.26

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Nottingham Forest xG trend

Current form +0.14 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 5 matches. The worst was against Tottenham Hotspur on Sat 05/09 (-0.92).

npxG · last 5
1.18
npxGA · last 5
1.04
-1 0 +1 +2 +0.16 Sat 22/08 -0.10 Sat 29/08 -0.92 Sat 05/09 +1.06 Sat 12/09 +0.48 Sat 19/09 +0.14 season avg
Nottingham Forest: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 22/08 Leeds United 0.65 0.49 +0.16 +0.16
Sat 29/08 Liverpool 1.51 1.61 -0.10 +0.03
Sat 05/09 Tottenham Hotspur 0.65 1.57 -0.92 -0.29
Sat 12/09 Aston Villa 1.92 0.86 +1.06 +0.05
Sat 19/09 Coventry City 1.15 0.67 +0.48 +0.14

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.18 npxG and 1.04 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 19 hardest of 20 in Premier League
−0.12 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.12 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 19 hardest of 20

  1. Coventry City Home −0.22
  2. Aston Villa Away −0.26
  3. Tottenham Hotspur Home −0.18
  4. Liverpool Away +0.17
  5. Leeds United Home −0.11

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Nottingham Forest shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. Nottingham Forest take 16.4 shots a match (league 13.9) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Premier League for volume and #19 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 26% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.4 shots per match
#3/20
Shot volume (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Manchester United 22.6
#2 Brighton & Hove Albion 19.0
#3 Nottingham Forest 16.4
#4 Brentford 16.2
#5 Everton 16.0
#6 Liverpool 15.2
=7 Chelsea 14.4
=7 Fulham 14.4
#9 Tottenham Hotspur 14.2
=10 Bournemouth 13.6
=10 Manchester City 13.6
#12 Sunderland 13.2
#13 Arsenal 13.0
=14 Hull City 12.2
=14 Leeds United 12.2
#16 Ipswich Town 11.6
#17 Crystal Palace 10.6
=18 Coventry City 10.2
=18 Newcastle United 10.2
#20 Aston Villa 9.6
League avg
13.9
Total
82 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#19/20
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Manchester City 0.14
#2 Sunderland 0.13
#3 Leeds United 0.13
#4 Ipswich Town 0.13
#5 Arsenal 0.12
#6 Crystal Palace 0.12
#7 Brentford 0.12
#8 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
#9 Fulham 0.11
#10 Bournemouth 0.11
#11 Coventry City 0.10
#12 Chelsea 0.10
#13 Everton 0.09
#14 Aston Villa 0.09
#15 Liverpool 0.09
#16 Hull City 0.09
#17 Newcastle United 0.08
#18 Manchester United 0.08
#19 Nottingham Forest 0.07
#20 Tottenham Hotspur 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
5.88 npxG from 82 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.4 shots per match
#1/20
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Nottingham Forest 10.4
=2 Arsenal 10.6
=2 Manchester United 10.6
#4 Bournemouth 10.8
=5 Brighton & Hove Albion 11.6
=5 Liverpool 11.6
#7 Manchester City 11.8
#8 Sunderland 12.0
#9 Brentford 13.4
=10 Everton 13.8
=10 Hull City 13.8
#12 Chelsea 14.4
#13 Leeds United 14.6
#14 Tottenham Hotspur 15.2
#15 Aston Villa 16.2
#16 Fulham 16.6
#17 Crystal Palace 16.8
#18 Ipswich Town 17.2
#19 Coventry City 17.4
#20 Newcastle United 19.6
League avg
13.9
Total
52 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#11/20
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Arsenal 0.06
#2 Leeds United 0.08
#3 Newcastle United 0.08
#4 Coventry City 0.08
#5 Liverpool 0.09
#6 Brentford 0.09
#7 Tottenham Hotspur 0.09
#8 Hull City 0.09
#9 Fulham 0.10
#10 Everton 0.10
#11 Nottingham Forest 0.10
#12 Ipswich Town 0.10
#13 Crystal Palace 0.10
#14 Aston Villa 0.11
#15 Bournemouth 0.13
#16 Sunderland 0.13
#17 Manchester United 0.13
#18 Chelsea 0.13
#19 Manchester City 0.14
#20 Brighton & Hove Albion 0.16
League avg
0.10
Total
5.20 npxGA from 52 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 48 of 82 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 33 of 52 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

74% open play · 26% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.5 of 5.8 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

66% open play · 34% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 1.8 of 5.2 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Nottingham Forest home and away xG

Nottingham Forest per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 3 2
xG / match 0.89 2.29
xGA / match 0.73 1.29
xGD / match +0.16 +1.01
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.47 2.08

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Nottingham Forest match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
2
xG / match
2.29
xGA / match
1.29
xGD / match
+1.01
Points
4 of 6
  1. Sat 12/09 Aston Villa A xG 2.28 xGA 0.82 xGD +1.46
  2. Sat 29/08 Liverpool A xG 2.30 P xGA 1.75 xGD +0.55

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Nottingham Forest in Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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