xgEdge

Expected goals

NK Maribor expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · after 10 matches · updated 4 Oct

NK Maribor's attacking and defensive expected goals in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NK Maribor xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.48 xG per match
#6/10
Attack (xG per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.76
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.66
#3 NK Celje 1.59
#4 FC Koper 1.53
#5 NK Bravo 1.48
#6 NK Maribor 1.48
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.44
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 1.31
#9 NŠ Mura 1.26
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 1.25
League avg
1.48
Total
14.78 10 matches
Defence
0.84 xGA per match
#1/10
Defence (xGA per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 NK Maribor 0.84
#2 NK Celje 1.05
#3 FC Koper 1.28
#4 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.32
#5 NŠ Mura 1.39
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.48
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.70
#8 Brinje Grosuplje 1.77
#9 NK Bravo 1.92
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 1.96
League avg
1.48
Total
8.43 10 matches
xG difference
+0.64 xGD per match
#1/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 NK Maribor +0.64
#2 NK Celje +0.54
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana +0.34
#4 FC Koper +0.25
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 +0.05
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo -0.05
#7 NŠ Mura -0.13
#8 NK Bravo -0.44
#9 Brinje Grosuplje -0.52
#10 Kalcer Radomlje -0.65
League avg
0.00
Total
+6.35 10 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.84 xPts per match
#1/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 NK Maribor 1.84
#2 NK Celje 1.78
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.61
#4 FC Koper 1.55
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.37
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.29
#7 NŠ Mura 1.22
#8 NK Bravo 1.06
#9 Brinje Grosuplje 1.06
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 0.99
League avg
1.37
Total
18.43 vs 20 actual pts

What the xG says

NK Maribor's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +0.64 per match, built on elite shot volume rather than the league's lowest chance quality. Their 19 goals are 4.22 above 14.78 xG, while 20 points are 1.57 above 18.43 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.75 xG from penalties
19 14.78 +4.22 scored 4.22 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
8 8.43 -0.43 conceded 0.43 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
20 18.43 +1.57 1.57 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NK Maribor are 4.22 goals above their xG after 10 matches. The gap was widest at +5.13, against Kalcer Radomlje on Sun 13/09.

Goals
19
xG
14.78
Gap
+4.22
Sun 19/07 Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 15/08 Sun 23/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 -0.85 +0.77 +0.33 +1.93 +1.96 +3.41 +4.42 +4.04 +5.13 +4.22 -0.85 +1.62 -0.44 +1.60 +0.03 +1.45 +1.01 -0.38 +1.09 -0.91 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NK Maribor: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 19/07 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0 0.85 -0.85 -0.85
Sat 25/07 Brinje Grosuplje 3 1.38 +1.62 +0.77
Sat 01/08 NK Celje 1 1.44 -0.44 +0.33
Sun 09/08 FC Koper 2 0.40 +1.60 +1.93
Sat 15/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1 0.97 +0.03 +1.96
Sun 23/08 NK Bravo 3 1.55 +1.45 +3.41
Sun 30/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 3 1.99 +1.01 +4.42
Sun 06/09 NŠ Mura 1 1.38 -0.38 +4.04
Sun 13/09 Kalcer Radomlje 3 1.91 +1.09 +5.13
Sat 19/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2 2.91 -0.91 +4.22

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NK Maribor xG trend

Current form +0.80 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 8 of 10 matches. The worst was against NK Aluminij Kidričevo on Sun 19/07 (-0.29).

npxG · last 6
1.66
npxGA · last 6
0.86
-1 0 +1 +2 -0.29 Sun 19/07 +1.03 Sat 25/07 +0.09 Sat 01/08 -0.14 Sun 09/08 +0.52 Sat 15/08 +0.48 Sun 23/08 +1.47 Sun 30/08 +0.80 Sun 06/09 +0.91 Sun 13/09 +0.61 Sat 19/09 +0.55 season avg
NK Maribor: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 19/07 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.85 1.14 -0.29 -0.29
Sat 25/07 Brinje Grosuplje 1.38 0.35 +1.03 +0.37
Sat 01/08 NK Celje 1.44 1.35 +0.09 +0.28
Sun 09/08 FC Koper 0.40 0.54 -0.14 +0.17
Sat 15/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.98 0.46 +0.52 +0.24
Sun 23/08 NK Bravo 1.55 1.07 +0.48 +0.28
Sun 30/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.99 0.52 +1.47 +0.45
Sun 06/09 NŠ Mura 1.38 0.58 +0.80 +0.49
Sun 13/09 Kalcer Radomlje 1.91 1.00 +0.91 +0.54
Sat 19/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2.15 1.54 +0.61 +0.55

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.40 npxG and 0.86 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 10 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
−0.17 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · number 10 hardest of 10

  1. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home −0.28
  2. Kalcer Radomlje Away −0.52
  3. NŠ Mura Home +0.23
  4. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away −0.20
  5. NK Bravo Home −0.09
  6. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Away +0.25
  7. FC Koper Home +0.15
  8. NK Celje Away +0.35
  9. Brinje Grosuplje Home −0.27
  10. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Away −0.28

Last 5

−0.17 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 10

  1. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home −0.28
  2. Kalcer Radomlje Away −0.52
  3. NŠ Mura Home +0.23
  4. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away −0.20
  5. NK Bravo Home −0.09

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NK Maribor shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. NK Maribor take 13.8 shots a match (league 11.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #2 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) for volume and #10 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 60%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.8 shots per match
#2/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 14.9
#2 NK Maribor 13.8
#3 NK Celje 12.1
#4 NŠ Mura 12.1
#5 FC Koper 12.0
#6 NK Bravo 11.9
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 11.4
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 10.9
#9 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 10.0
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 8.8
League avg
11.8
Total
138 shots from 10 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#10/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.15
#2 Brinje Grosuplje 0.14
#3 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.14
#4 NK Celje 0.12
#5 FC Koper 0.12
#6 Kalcer Radomlje 0.11
#7 NK Bravo 0.11
#8 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.11
#9 NŠ Mura 0.10
#10 NK Maribor 0.10
League avg
0.12
Total
14.03 npxG from 138 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
8.7 shots per match
#1/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Maribor 8.7
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 9.6
#3 NK Celje 9.9
=4 Brinje Grosuplje 10.8
=4 NŠ Mura 10.8
#6 FC Koper 11.5
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 12.1
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 12.8
#9 NK Bravo 14.6
#10 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 17.1
League avg
11.8
Total
87 shots allowed from 10 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#1/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Maribor 0.10
#2 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.10
#3 NK Celje 0.11
#4 FC Koper 0.11
#5 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.11
#6 NŠ Mura 0.12
#7 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.12
#8 NK Bravo 0.13
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 0.15
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 0.16
League avg
0.12
Total
8.55 npxGA from 87 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 60%

From 86 of 138 shots over 10 matches

Shots allowed, location

59% allowed inside the box

League avg 60%

From 51 of 87 shots allowed over 10 matches

How the shot figures are made →

NK Maribor home and away xG

NK Maribor per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 5
xG / match 1.52 1.43
xGA / match 0.80 0.89
xGD / match +0.73 +0.54
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.91 1.77

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NK Maribor match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
10
xG / match
1.48
xGA / match
0.84
xGD / match
+0.64
Points
20 of 30
  1. Sat 19/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo H xG 2.91 P xGA 1.54 xGD +1.37
  2. Sun 13/09 Kalcer Radomlje A xG 1.91 xGA 0.99 xGD +0.92
  3. Sun 06/09 NŠ Mura H xG 1.38 xGA 0.58 xGD +0.80
  4. Sun 30/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 A Best underlying xG 1.99 xGA 0.52 xGD +1.47
  5. Sun 23/08 NK Bravo H xG 1.55 xGA 0.97 xGD +0.58
  6. Sat 15/08 NK Olimpija Ljubljana A xG 0.97 xGA 0.46 xGD +0.51
  7. Sun 09/08 FC Koper H xG 0.40 xGA 0.54 xGD -0.14
  8. Sat 01/08 NK Celje A xG 1.44 xGA 1.35 xGD +0.09
  9. Sat 25/07 Brinje Grosuplje H xG 1.38 xGA 0.35 xGD +1.03
  10. Sun 19/07 NK Aluminij Kidričevo A Weakest underlying xG 0.85 xGA 1.13 xGD -0.28

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NK Maribor in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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