Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 11:45
20d 9h to kick-offAkron Togliatti – Dynamo Moscow
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Akron Togliatti
- 27%
- Draw
- 26%
- Dynamo Moscow
- 46%
| Akron Togliatti | Draw | Dynamo Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.64 | 3.82 | 2.16 |
- Total goals
- 3.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dynamo Moscow
46% Dynamo Moscow to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 16th
- Dynamo Moscow attack v Akron Togliatti defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 11th
- Dynamo Moscow defence v Akron Togliatti attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.86
- Akron Togliatti v Dynamo Moscow
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Akron Togliatti | Dynamo Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.65 | (better) -0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Dynamo Moscow clean sheet
- 21%
- Dynamo Moscow 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 1:2
- 10.4%
- 2:2
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akron Togliatti sample
- 20 matches
- Dynamo Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Akron Togliatti
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Dynamo Moscow
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.