Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:15
20d 11h to kick-offRubin Kazan – Krylya Sovetov Samara
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Rubin Kazan
- 42%
- Draw
- 32%
- Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 26%
| Rubin Kazan | Draw | Krylya Sovetov Samara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.38 | 3.13 | 3.84 |
- Total goals
- 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Rubin Kazan
42% Rubin Kazan to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 14th
- Rubin Kazan attack v Krylya Sovetov Samara defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 14th
- Rubin Kazan defence v Krylya Sovetov Samara attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.14 vs +0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.35 – 1.04
- Rubin Kazan v Krylya Sovetov Samara
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rubin Kazan | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.79 from 1 match | (better) 2.62 from 1 match |
| xGA / match | (better) 2.49 from 1 match | 2.51 from 1 match |
| xGD / match | -1.70 from 1 match | (better) +0.11 from 1 match |
| xPts / match | 0.33 from 1 match | (better) 1.46 from 1 match |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.14 | (better) +0.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Rubin Kazan clean sheet
- 33%
- Rubin Kazan 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:0
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rubin Kazan sample
- 20 matches
- Krylya Sovetov Samara sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rubin Kazan
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.