xgEdge

Expected goals

Dundee FC expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 4 Oct

Dundee FC's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Dundee FC xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.28 xG per match
#9/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
8.99 7 matches
Defence
1.56 xGA per match
#7/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
10.95 7 matches
xG difference
-0.28 xGD per match
#9/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.96 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.24 xPts per match
#8/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
8.69 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Dundee FC's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Scottish Premiership. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.28 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 9 goals are 0.01 above 8.99 xG, while 10 points are 1.31 above 8.69 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.83 xG from penalties
9 8.99 +0.01 scored 0.01 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
7 10.95 -3.95 conceded 3.95 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 8.69 +1.31 1.31 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Dundee FC are 0.01 goals above their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
9
xG
8.99
Gap
+0.01
Mon 03/08 Sat 08/08 Sat 22/08 Sun 30/08 Wed 02/09 Sun 06/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.47 -0.69 -0.37 -0.15 -1.12 -0.63 +0.01 -0.47 -0.22 +0.32 +0.22 -0.97 +0.49 +0.64 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Dundee FC: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 03/08 Celtic 0 0.47 -0.47 -0.47
Sat 08/08 Aberdeen 2 2.22 -0.22 -0.69
Sat 22/08 Dundee United 2 1.68 +0.32 -0.37
Sun 30/08 Hibernian 1 0.78 +0.22 -0.15
Wed 02/09 St. Johnstone 1 1.97 -0.97 -1.12
Sun 06/09 Heart of Midlothian 1 0.51 +0.49 -0.63
Sat 19/09 Motherwell 2 1.36 +0.64 +0.01

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Dundee FC xG trend

Current form +0.01 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against Celtic on Mon 03/08 (-2.09).

npxG · last 6
1.28
npxGA · last 6
1.27
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -2.09 Mon 03/08 +1.51 Sat 08/08 +0.37 Sat 22/08 -1.64 Sun 30/08 +0.92 Wed 02/09 -0.57 Sun 06/09 -0.53 Sat 19/09 -0.29 season avg
Dundee FC: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 03/08 Celtic 0.47 2.56 -2.09 -2.09
Sat 08/08 Aberdeen 2.22 0.71 +1.51 -0.29
Sat 22/08 Dundee United 1.61 1.24 +0.37 -0.07
Sun 30/08 Hibernian 0.78 2.42 -1.64 -0.46
Wed 02/09 St. Johnstone 2.00 1.08 +0.92 -0.19
Sun 06/09 Heart of Midlothian 0.51 1.08 -0.57 -0.25
Sat 19/09 Motherwell 0.57 1.10 -0.53 -0.29

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.17 npxG and 1.46 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 4 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.05 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.05 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 4 hardest of 12

  1. Motherwell Home +0.05
  2. Heart of Midlothian Away +0.18
  3. St. Johnstone Home −0.23
  4. Hibernian Home −0.03
  5. Dundee United Away −0.09
  6. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  7. Celtic Away +0.82

Last 5

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 12

  1. Motherwell Home +0.05
  2. Heart of Midlothian Away +0.18
  3. St. Johnstone Home −0.23
  4. Hibernian Home −0.03
  5. Dundee United Away −0.09

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Dundee FC shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Dundee FC take 11.3 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #8 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #3 for quality. 72% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 28% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.3 shots per match
#8/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
79 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#3/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
8.16 npxG from 79 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
19.0 shots per match
#12/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
133 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#2/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
10.19 npxGA from 133 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

72% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 57 of 79 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 87 of 133 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.3 of 8.2 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.2 of 10.3 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Dundee FC home and away xG

Dundee FC per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.58 0.89
xGA / match 1.33 1.88
xGD / match +0.26 -1.00
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.60 0.76

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Dundee FC match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
1.26
xGA / match
1.54
xGD / match
-0.28
Points
7 of 15
  1. Sat 19/09 Motherwell H xG 1.36 P xGA 1.10 xGD +0.26
  2. Sun 06/09 Heart of Midlothian A xG 0.51 xGA 1.87 P xGD -1.36
  3. Wed 02/09 St. Johnstone H Best underlying xG 1.97 xGA 1.08 xGD +0.89
  4. Sun 30/08 Hibernian H Weakest underlying xG 0.78 xGA 2.42 xGD -1.64
  5. Sat 22/08 Dundee United A xG 1.68 xGA 1.23 xGD +0.45

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Dundee FC in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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