Scottish Premiership xG difference 2026/2027
Expected-goal difference per match for every Scottish Premiership club: the chances a side made, less the chances it allowed, over the matches with xG behind them.
Showing non-penalty xG. Penalties are removed from the expected-goal columns; goals, G − xG and the rates taken from goals are unchanged.
Celtic lead on expected-goal difference, +1.98 a match over 7 matches with xG. That is 1.05 a match clear of Rangers. Kilmarnock sit at the foot on −1.26 a match.
Attack and defence
Heart of Midlothian
P 7 · Pts 13 · 3rd
xG/match 1.43 · xGA/match 1.11 · xGD/match +0.32
xPts 11.73
Open Heart of MidlothianDundee United
P 7 · Pts 8 · 8th
xG/match 1.42 · xGA/match 1.33 · xGD/match +0.09
xPts 9.98
Open Dundee UnitedHibernian
P 7 · Pts 7 · 10th
xG/match 1.41 · xGA/match 1.34 · xGD/match +0.07
xPts 10.80
Open HibernianMotherwell
P 7 · Pts 8 · 9th
xG/match 1.14 · xGA/match 1.24 · xGD/match −0.09
xPts 9.57
Open MotherwellSt. Mirren
P 7 · Pts 10 · 5th
xG/match 1.32 · xGA/match 1.47 · xGD/match −0.14
xPts 9.33
Open St. MirrenDundee FC
P 7 · Pts 10 · 4th
xG/match 1.17 · xGA/match 1.46 · xGD/match −0.29
xPts 8.69
Open Dundee FCSt. Johnstone
P 7 · Pts 8 · 6th
xG/match 1.22 · xGA/match 1.59 · xGD/match −0.38
xPts 8.37
Open St. JohnstoneFalkirk FC
P 7 · Pts 6 · 11th
xG/match 0.94 · xGA/match 1.67 · xGD/match −0.72
xPts 5.99
Open Falkirk FCKilmarnock
P 7 · Pts 5 · 12th
xG/match 0.93 · xGA/match 2.18 · xGD/match −1.26
xPts 4.99
Open Kilmarnock| Club | xG/match | xGA/match | xGD/match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic CEL | 2.78 | 0.81 | +1.98 |
| Rangers RAN | 1.82 | 0.89 | +0.93 |
| Heart of Midlothian HEA | 1.43 | 1.11 | +0.32 |
| Dundee United DUN | 1.42 | 1.33 | +0.09 |
| Hibernian HIB | 1.41 | 1.34 | +0.07 |
| Motherwell MOT | 1.14 | 1.24 | −0.09 |
| St. Mirren STM | 1.32 | 1.47 | −0.14 |
| Dundee FC DUN | 1.17 | 1.46 | −0.29 |
| St. Johnstone STJ | 1.22 | 1.59 | −0.38 |
| Aberdeen ABE | 0.84 | 1.34 | −0.50 |
| Falkirk FC FAL | 0.94 | 1.67 | −0.72 |
| Kilmarnock KIL | 0.93 | 2.18 | −1.26 |
- Top 3 in the table
- Other clubs
- Above average at both ends
- Below average at both ends
Non-penalty xG. Hover, focus or tap a dot for its figures.
Ranked on xG difference per match
- Creates more than it allows
- Allows more than it creates
| # | Team | P | npxG | npxGA | npxGD | npxGD/match | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic CEL | 7 | 19.49 | 5.66 | +13.83 | +1.98 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers RAN | 7 | 12.77 | 6.26 | +6.51 | +0.93 | 16 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian HEA | 7 | 9.98 | 7.75 | +2.23 | +0.32 | 13 |
| 4 | Dundee United DUN | 7 | 9.95 | 9.30 | +0.65 | +0.09 | 8 |
| 5 | Hibernian HIB | 7 | 9.89 | 9.39 | +0.50 | +0.07 | 7 |
| 6 | Motherwell MOT | 7 | 8.01 | 8.66 | −0.65 | −0.09 | 8 |
| 7 | St. Mirren STM | 7 | 9.26 | 10.26 | −1.00 | −0.14 | 10 |
| 8 | Dundee FC DUN | 7 | 8.16 | 10.19 | −2.03 | −0.29 | 10 |
| 9 | St. Johnstone STJ | 7 | 8.52 | 11.16 | −2.64 | −0.38 | 8 |
| 10 | Aberdeen ABE | 7 | 5.88 | 9.41 | −3.53 | −0.50 | 8 |
| 11 | Falkirk FC FAL | 7 | 6.61 | 11.67 | −5.06 | −0.72 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock KIL | 7 | 6.48 | 15.29 | −8.81 | −1.26 | 5 |
Goals against chances made
Most goals above xG
Most goals below xG
Goals against chances allowed
Most conceded above xGA
Fewest conceded against xGA
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- npxG
- — Non-penalty expected goals: xG with penalties removed
- npxGA
- — Non-penalty expected goals against: xGA with penalties removed
- npxGD
- — npxG minus npxGA
- npxGD/match
- — npxG minus npxGA, per match with xG data
- Pts
- — Points
A club is ranked once it has 3 matches with xG and at least 75% of what the median club has played. Below that its row stays in the table, its rates are dashed and it sorts last.