Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 18:00
6d 5h to kick-offAris Thessaloniki – NPS Volos
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 51%
- Draw
- 29%
- NPS Volos
- 20%
| Aris Thessaloniki | Draw | NPS Volos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.94 | 3.46 | 5.10 |
- Total goals
- 2.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Aris Thessaloniki
- Model
- 51.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 60.0%
- Probability gap
- −8.5 pp
- Edge
- −20.2%
- Fair odds
- 1.94
- Market odds
- 1.55 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.04
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.1%
- Probability gap
- +3.8 pp
- Edge
- +7.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.46
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.63
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
-
NPS Volos
- Model
- 19.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.9%
- Probability gap
- +4.7 pp
- Edge
- +22.6%
- Fair odds
- 5.10
- Market odds
- 6.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.35
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.5%
Outcomes with value
NPS Volos to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Aris Thessaloniki not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Aris Thessaloniki at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
NPS Volos 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
NPS Volos to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
NPS Volos to win
Model 19.6% vs. bookmaker 14.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Aris Thessaloniki
51% Aris Thessaloniki to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 12th
- Aris Thessaloniki attack v NPS Volos defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 12th
- Aris Thessaloniki defence v NPS Volos attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.62 – 0.97
- Aris Thessaloniki v NPS Volos
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aris Thessaloniki | NPS Volos |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 5th | 0.93 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.81 · 14th | (better) 1.53 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.28 · 8th | -0.60 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.39 · 6th | 0.94 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.13 | -0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Thessaloniki clean sheet
- 35%
- Aris Thessaloniki 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 9.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- NPS Volos sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aris Thessaloniki
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · NPS Volos
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.