Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:00
Kicked offIraklis 1908 – Asteras Aktor
Model updated 5 September, 15:00 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Iraklis 1908
- 34%
- Draw
- 35%
- Asteras Aktor
- 31%
| Iraklis 1908 | Draw | Asteras Aktor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.91 | 2.89 | 3.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Iraklis 1908 to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 7th
- Iraklis 1908 attack v Asteras Aktor defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 10th
- Iraklis 1908 defence v Asteras Aktor attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.20 vs +0.24
- xGD per match, last 2
- Projected goals
- 1.10 – 1.04
- Iraklis 1908 v Asteras Aktor
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 2 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Iraklis 1908 | Asteras Aktor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.57 · 14th | (better) 1.04 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 9th | (better) 1.24 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.88 · 14th | (better) -0.20 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.65 · 14th | (better) 1.22 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.20 from 2 matches | (better) +0.24 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Iraklis 1908 sample
- 2 matches
- Asteras Aktor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Iraklis 1908
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Asteras Aktor
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00
Warnings
- Iraklis 1908 has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.