Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 12h to kick-offUTA Arad – CFR 1907 Cluj
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- UTA Arad
- 49%
- Draw
- 26%
- CFR 1907 Cluj
- 25%
| UTA Arad | Draw | CFR 1907 Cluj | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.04 | 3.79 | 4.07 |
- Total goals
- 3.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans UTA Arad
49% UTA Arad to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 8th
- UTA Arad attack v CFR 1907 Cluj defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 5th
- UTA Arad defence v CFR 1907 Cluj attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.54 vs +0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.86 – 1.32
- UTA Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | UTA Arad | CFR 1907 Cluj |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.87 · 7th | (better) 1.99 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.24 · 5th | 2.04 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.63 · 4th | -0.05 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.78 · 4th | 1.43 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.54 | +0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- UTA Arad clean sheet
- 24%
- UTA Arad 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 2:2
- 7.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- UTA Arad sample
- 20 matches
- CFR 1907 Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · UTA Arad
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · CFR 1907 Cluj
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.