Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
24d 23h to kick-offFK Mačva Šabac – FK Crvena zvezda
Model updated 7 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Mačva Šabac
- 11%
- Draw
- 20%
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 69%
| FK Mačva Šabac | Draw | FK Crvena zvezda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 9.15 | 5.10 | 1.44 |
- Total goals
- 3.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Crvena zvezda
69% FK Crvena zvezda to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 13th
- FK Crvena zvezda attack v FK Mačva Šabac defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 13th
- FK Crvena zvezda defence v FK Mačva Šabac attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.45 vs -1.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.98 – 2.41
- FK Mačva Šabac v FK Crvena zvezda
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 8 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Mačva Šabac | FK Crvena zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.80 · 13th | (better) 2.78 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 2.46 · 13th | (better) 0.98 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -1.66 · 13th | (better) +1.80 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 0.68 · 13th | (better) 2.36 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.53 | (better) +1.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- FK Crvena zvezda clean sheet
- 35%
- FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals
- 72%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2
- 11.0%
- 0:2
- 9.6%
- 1:1
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Mačva Šabac sample
- 8 matches
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Mačva Šabac
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Crvena zvezda
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 18:30
Warnings
- FK Mačva Šabac has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.