Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
26d 19h to kick-offFK Radnički 1923 – FK Novi Pazar
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Radnički 1923
- 54%
- Draw
- 26%
- FK Novi Pazar
- 20%
| FK Radnički 1923 | Draw | FK Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.86 | 3.84 | 4.93 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Radnički 1923
54% FK Radnički 1923 to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- FK Radnički 1923 attack v FK Novi Pazar defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 7th
- FK Radnički 1923 defence v FK Novi Pazar attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.88 – 1.15
- FK Radnički 1923 v FK Novi Pazar
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Radnički 1923 | FK Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.14 · 4th | 2.00 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.35 · 4th | 2.04 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.79 · 5th | -0.04 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.92 · 3rd | 1.44 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.62 | +0.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FK Radnički 1923 clean sheet
- 29%
- FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.6%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički 1923 sample
- 20 matches
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Radnički 1923
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Novi Pazar
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.