Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 15h to kick-offFK Radnik Surdulica – FK Radnički Niš
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 43%
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Radnički Niš
- 27%
| FK Radnik Surdulica | Draw | FK Radnički Niš | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.31 | 3.41 | 3.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.78
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Radnik Surdulica
43% FK Radnik Surdulica to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 8th
- FK Radnik Surdulica attack v FK Radnički Niš defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 8th
- FK Radnik Surdulica defence v FK Radnički Niš attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 1.23
- FK Radnik Surdulica v FK Radnički Niš
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Radnik Surdulica | FK Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.62 · 8th | 1.48 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.46 · 6th | (better) 1.42 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.16 · 7th | +0.06 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.39 · 9th | (better) 1.51 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.22 | -0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FK Radnik Surdulica clean sheet
- 26%
- FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Radnik Surdulica
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Radnički Niš
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.