Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 16:30
31d 16h to kick-offServette FC – FC Zürich
Model updated 8 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Servette FC
- 49%
- Draw
- 29%
- FC Zürich
- 22%
| Servette FC | Draw | FC Zürich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.05 | 3.44 | 4.52 |
- Total goals
- 2.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Servette FC
49% Servette FC to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 8th
- Servette FC attack v FC Zürich defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 10th
- Servette FC defence v FC Zürich attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.30 vs -0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.06
- Servette FC v FC Zürich
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Servette FC | FC Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 9th | 1.38 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.53 · 7th | 1.93 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.12 · 6th | -0.55 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.30 · 6th | 1.12 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.30 | -0.46 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Servette FC clean sheet
- 32%
- Servette FC 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 9.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Servette FC sample
- 20 matches
- FC Zürich sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Servette FC
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Zürich
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.