Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 18:00
1d 4h to kick-offIF Gnistan – Inter Turku
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Best odds updated 5 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- IF Gnistan
- 26%
- Draw
- 29%
- Inter Turku
- 45%
| IF Gnistan | Draw | Inter Turku | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.84 | 3.48 | 2.21 |
- Total goals
- 2.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
IF Gnistan
- Model
- 26.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.6%
- Probability gap
- +3.5 pp
- Edge
- +4.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.84
- Market odds
- 4.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.03
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.8%
- Probability gap
- +2.9 pp
- Edge
- +0.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.48
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
-
Inter Turku
- Model
- 45.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 51.6%
- Probability gap
- −6.4 pp
- Edge
- −20.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.21
- Market odds
- 1.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.32
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
Outcomes with value
IF Gnistan 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
IF Gnistan to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
IF Gnistan to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
IF Gnistan 2+ goals
Model 35.1% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Inter Turku
45% Inter Turku to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 7th
- Inter Turku attack v IF Gnistan defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Inter Turku defence v IF Gnistan attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.62
- IF Gnistan v Inter Turku
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IF Gnistan | Inter Turku |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.61 · 7th | (better) 1.78 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.43 · 5th | (better) 0.93 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.18 · 5th | (better) +0.86 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.43 · 5th | (better) 1.96 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Inter Turku clean sheet
- 27%
- Inter Turku 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 1:2
- 10.9%
- 2:1
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IF Gnistan sample
- 20 matches
- Inter Turku sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · IF Gnistan
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · Inter Turku
- 12 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
- Odds updated
- 19 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.