Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 19:00
24d 19h to kick-offDegerfors IF – Västerås SK
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Degerfors IF
- 38%
- Draw
- 27%
- Västerås SK
- 35%
| Degerfors IF | Draw | Västerås SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.62 | 3.67 | 2.89 |
- Total goals
- 3.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
38% Degerfors IF to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 12th
- Degerfors IF attack v Västerås SK defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 10th
- Degerfors IF defence v Västerås SK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.06 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.58
- Degerfors IF v Västerås SK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Degerfors IF | Västerås SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.26 · 15th | (better) 1.64 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.76 · 10th | 1.91 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.51 · 13th | (better) -0.27 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 12th | (better) 1.21 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.06 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Degerfors IF clean sheet
- 18%
- Degerfors IF 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.3%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Degerfors IF sample
- 20 matches
- Västerås SK sample
- 19 matches
- Home xG sample · Degerfors IF
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Västerås SK
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.