Degerfors IF 0:1 Hammarby IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Degerfors IF Home 1.98 xG

Hammarby IF Away 2.38 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Hammarby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 66%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Degerfors IF's attack: 1.98 xG against 1.08 projected (+0.90).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Degerfors IF: 13%
Draw: 21%
Hammarby IF: 66% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Degerfors IF 1.08 1.98 +0.90

Hammarby IF 2.34 2.38 +0.04

Degerfors IF produced 0.90 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Degerfors IF Hammarby IF

Shots: 9; 17
On target: 1; 12
Inside the box: 7; 6
xG per shot: 0.22; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Degerfors IF

1.37 xG created 1.67 xGA

W 0.70 created, 2.53 conceded against Malmö FF
W 1.69 created, 1.13 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 1.08 created, 2.05 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 0.18 created, 1.63 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 2.83 created, 0.80 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.71 created, 1.86 conceded against IK Sirius

Hammarby IF

3.39 xG created 0.89 xGA

W 3.17 created, 0.38 conceded against BK Häcken
W 3.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 3.00 created, 1.01 conceded against GAIS
L 4.26 created, 1.91 conceded against AIK
D 4.04 created, 0.61 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.07 created, 1.03 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Degerfors IF: 0 won · 1 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Degerfors IF against Hammarby IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.91	+23.7%	Lost
Draw	5.50	+15.6%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+7.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+3.6%	Lost
Degerfors IF to win	7.50	+0.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Degerfors IF	13.4%	12.5%	+0.9 pp	7.47
Draw	21.0%	17.1%	+4.0 pp	4.76
Hammarby IF	65.6%	70.4%	−4.8 pp	1.52

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.8%	50.0%	+14.8 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.2%	50.0%	−14.8 pp	2.84
Over 1.5 goals	88.8%	81.1%	+7.7 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.2%	18.9%	−7.7 pp	8.93
Over 2.5 goals	68.7%	59.9%	+8.8 pp	1.46
Under 2.5 goals	31.3%	40.1%	−8.8 pp	3.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Degerfors IF sample: 20 matches
Hammarby IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.