Friday, 09/10/2026 at 19:00
5d 19h to kick-offIFK Göteborg – Västerås SK
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:22
What the model expects
- IFK Göteborg
- 50%
- Draw
- 24%
- Västerås SK
- 26%
| IFK Göteborg | Draw | Västerås SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 4.17 | 3.90 |
- Total goals
- 3.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 75%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
IFK Göteborg
- Model
- 50.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 54.4%
- Probability gap
- −4.0 pp
- Edge
- −14.4%
- Fair odds
- 1.99
- Market odds
- 1.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.3%
- Probability gap
- −0.3 pp
- Edge
- −8.9%
- Fair odds
- 4.17
- Market odds
- 3.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.38
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.2%
-
Västerås SK
- Model
- 25.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.3%
- Probability gap
- +4.3 pp
- Edge
- +11.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.90
- Market odds
- 4.33 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.2%
Outcomes with value
Västerås SK to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Västerås SK to win
Model 25.7% vs. bookmaker 21.3%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans IFK Göteborg
50% IFK Göteborg to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 12th
- IFK Göteborg attack v Västerås SK defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 10th
- IFK Göteborg defence v Västerås SK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.66 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.14 – 1.56
- IFK Göteborg v Västerås SK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IFK Göteborg | Västerås SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.95 · 5th | 1.64 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.63 · 8th | 1.91 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.32 · 7th | -0.27 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.60 · 7th | 1.21 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.66 | -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- IFK Göteborg clean sheet
- 18%
- IFK Göteborg 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:1
- 9.5%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IFK Göteborg sample
- 20 matches
- Västerås SK sample
- 19 matches
- Home xG sample · IFK Göteborg
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Västerås SK
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.