Friday, 23/10/2026 at 19:00
19d 18h to kick-offVästerås SK – Halmstads BK
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Västerås SK
- 56%
- Draw
- 22%
- Halmstads BK
- 22%
| Västerås SK | Draw | Halmstads BK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.80 | 4.46 | 4.54 |
- Total goals
- 3.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 76%
- Both teams to score
- 75%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Västerås SK
56% Västerås SK to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 16th
- Västerås SK attack v Halmstads BK defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 14th
- Västerås SK defence v Halmstads BK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.33 – 1.51
- Västerås SK v Halmstads BK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Västerås SK | Halmstads BK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.64 · 9th | 1.10 · 16th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.91 · 12th | 2.41 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.27 · 9th | -1.31 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.21 · 11th | 0.61 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.42 | -0.78 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 26% of the model's distribution.
- Västerås SK clean sheet
- 19%
- Västerås SK 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 24%
- Both teams to score: no
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:1
- 8.6%
- 2:2
- 7.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Västerås SK sample
- 19 matches
- Halmstads BK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Västerås SK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Halmstads BK
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.