Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:30
14d 16h to kick-offHalmstads BK – Hammarby IF
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Halmstads BK
- 8%
- Draw
- 14%
- Hammarby IF
- 78%
| Halmstads BK | Draw | Hammarby IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 12.26 | 7.14 | 1.28 |
- Total goals
- 4.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 82%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Hammarby IF
78% Hammarby IF to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 16th
- Hammarby IF attack v Halmstads BK defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 14th
- Hammarby IF defence v Halmstads BK attack
- Recent xG form
- +2.10 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.14 – 3.15
- Halmstads BK v Hammarby IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Halmstads BK | Hammarby IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 16th | (better) 2.66 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 2.41 · 16th | (better) 1.11 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -1.31 · 16th | (better) +1.54 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 0.61 · 16th | (better) 2.24 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.78 | (better) +2.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 25% of the model's distribution.
- Hammarby IF clean sheet
- 29%
- Hammarby IF 2+ goals
- 84%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 18%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:3
- 9.4%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
- 1:4
- 7.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Halmstads BK sample
- 20 matches
- Hammarby IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Halmstads BK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Hammarby IF
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.