Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:00
7d 11h to kick-offHammarby IF – Djurgårdens IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Hammarby IF
- 57%
- Draw
- 24%
- Djurgårdens IF
- 20%
| Hammarby IF | Draw | Djurgårdens IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.76 | 4.24 | 5.12 |
- Total goals
- 3.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Hammarby IF
- Model
- 56.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 54.8%
- Probability gap
- +2.0 pp
- Edge
- −5.2%
- Fair odds
- 1.76
- Market odds
- 1.67 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 23.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.1%
- Probability gap
- −0.5 pp
- Edge
- −10.4%
- Fair odds
- 4.24
- Market odds
- 3.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.45
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.4%
-
Djurgårdens IF
- Model
- 19.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.1%
- Probability gap
- −1.6 pp
- Edge
- −15.3%
- Fair odds
- 5.12
- Market odds
- 4.33 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.4%
Outcomes with value
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Hammarby IF
57% Hammarby IF to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 2nd
- Hammarby IF attack v Djurgårdens IF defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 4th
- Hammarby IF defence v Djurgårdens IF attack
- Recent xG form
- +2.10 vs +1.48
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.15 – 1.28
- Hammarby IF v Djurgårdens IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Hammarby IF | Djurgårdens IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.66 · 1st | 2.30 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.11 · 1st | 1.15 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.54 · 1st | +1.16 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.24 · 1st | 2.05 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +2.10 | +1.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Hammarby IF clean sheet
- 25%
- Hammarby IF 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:1
- 10.4%
- 3:1
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Hammarby IF sample
- 20 matches
- Djurgårdens IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Hammarby IF
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · Djurgårdens IF
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.