Monday, 12/10/2026 at 19:00
8d 11h to kick-offMalmö FF – Kalmar FF
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Malmö FF
- 53%
- Draw
- 25%
- Kalmar FF
- 22%
| Malmö FF | Draw | Kalmar FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.88 | 4.06 | 4.53 |
- Total goals
- 3.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Malmö FF
- Model
- 53.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 53.8%
- Probability gap
- −0.5 pp
- Edge
- −9.4%
- Fair odds
- 1.88
- Market odds
- 1.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.97
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.4%
- Probability gap
- +0.2 pp
- Edge
- −7.7%
- Fair odds
- 4.06
- Market odds
- 3.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.27
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
-
Kalmar FF
- Model
- 22.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.8%
- Probability gap
- +0.3 pp
- Edge
- −7.2%
- Fair odds
- 4.53
- Market odds
- 4.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.75
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.3%
Outcomes with value
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Kalmar FF to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Malmö FF 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Malmö FF to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
Model 39.5% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Malmö FF
53% Malmö FF to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 8th
- Malmö FF attack v Kalmar FF defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 12th
- Malmö FF defence v Kalmar FF attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.05 vs -1.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.05 – 1.34
- Malmö FF v Kalmar FF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Malmö FF | Kalmar FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.04 · 4th | 1.31 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.50 · 6th | 1.74 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.54 · 4th | -0.43 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.67 · 5th | 1.21 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.05 | -1.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Malmö FF clean sheet
- 24%
- Malmö FF 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.9%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 2:2
- 7.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Malmö FF sample
- 20 matches
- Kalmar FF sample
- 17 matches
- Home xG sample · Malmö FF
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · Kalmar FF
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.