Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:30
33d 21h to kick-offÖrgryte IS – Västerås SK
Model updated 4 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Örgryte IS
- 30%
- Draw
- 26%
- Västerås SK
- 44%
| Örgryte IS | Draw | Västerås SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.31 | 3.90 | 2.27 |
- Total goals
- 3.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Västerås SK
44% Västerås SK to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 14th
- Västerås SK attack v Örgryte IS defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 16th
- Västerås SK defence v Örgryte IS attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -1.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.89
- Örgryte IS v Västerås SK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Örgryte IS | Västerås SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.26 · 14th | (better) 1.64 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 2.26 · 14th | (better) 1.91 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.99 · 15th | (better) -0.27 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 0.87 · 15th | (better) 1.21 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.51 | (better) -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Västerås SK clean sheet
- 18%
- Västerås SK 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:2
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Örgryte IS sample
- 20 matches
- Västerås SK sample
- 19 matches
- Home xG sample · Örgryte IS
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Västerås SK
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.