1. FC Köln 1:3 FC Bayern München: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Wednesday, 14/01/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

1. FC Köln Home 0.72 xG · 8 shots

FC Bayern München Away 1.50 xG · 19 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

41' Linton Maina 1. FC Köln · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
45' Serge Gnabry FC Bayern München · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
71' Kim Min-jae FC Bayern München · 0.30 xG chance 1–2
84' Lennart Karl FC Bayern München · 0.13 xG chance 1–3

The shots behind it

1. FC Köln FC Bayern München

Shots: 8; 19
On target: 3; 8
Inside the box: 5; 14
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.51; 1.07
Set-piece xG: 0.18; 0.45
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.70 for 1. FC Köln and 1.50 for FC Bayern München.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.21 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FC Köln
FC Bayern München
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FC Köln

1.26 xG created 1.40 xGA

L 1.22 created, 1.81 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
D 0.94 created, 1.17 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
D 1.66 created, 0.14 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 0.20 created, 2.07 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
L 0.55 created, 1.26 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
D 2.99 created, 1.93 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim

FC Bayern München

3.52 xG created 0.85 xGA

W 3.03 created, 0.57 conceded against SC Freiburg
W 2.30 created, 0.64 conceded against FC St. Pauli
W 3.54 created, 0.88 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
D 4.50 created, 0.60 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 4.44 created, 1.04 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 3.30 created, 1.36 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.