Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
1. FSV Mainz 05 – Borussia Dortmund
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 40%
- Draw
- 29%
- Borussia Dortmund
- 31%
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.48 | 3.21 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans 1. FSV Mainz 05
40% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 1st
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v Borussia Dortmund defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 8th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v Borussia Dortmund attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.57 – 1.38
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 v Borussia Dortmund
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.47 | (better) +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 22%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.