Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Borussia Dortmund – 1. FSV Mainz 05
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Borussia Dortmund
- 47%
- Draw
- 28%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 25%
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.11 | 3.61 | 4.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
47% Borussia Dortmund to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 7th
- Borussia Dortmund attack v 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Borussia Dortmund defence v 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.00 vs +0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 1.25
- Borussia Dortmund v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Borussia Dortmund | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.66 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.93 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.73 · 5th from 4 matches | +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.95 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.00 | +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
- 26%
- Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 7.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Borussia Dortmund sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Borussia Dortmund
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.