Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 18:00
7d 15h to kick-offOlympiakos Nicosia – Aris Limassol
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Olympiakos Nicosia
- 26%
- Draw
- 32%
- Aris Limassol
- 41%
| Olympiakos Nicosia | Draw | Aris Limassol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.81 | 3.09 | 2.41 |
- Total goals
- 2.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Olympiakos Nicosia
- Model
- 26.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.3%
- Probability gap
- −1.1 pp
- Edge
- −13.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.81
- Market odds
- 3.30 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.00
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.5%
- Probability gap
- +5.8 pp
- Edge
- +9.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.09
- Market odds
- 3.40 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.0%
-
Aris Limassol
- Model
- 41.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 46.2%
- Probability gap
- −4.8 pp
- Edge
- −19.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.41
- Market odds
- 1.95 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.54
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.0%
Outcomes with value
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Aris Limassol
41% Aris Limassol to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 7th
- Aris Limassol attack v Olympiakos Nicosia defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 12th
- Aris Limassol defence v Olympiakos Nicosia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.42 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.02 – 1.32
- Olympiakos Nicosia v Aris Limassol
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Olympiakos Nicosia | Aris Limassol |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.69 · 5th from 3 matches | (better) 1.71 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.52 · joint 6th from 3 matches | (better) 1.25 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.17 · 7th from 3 matches | (better) +0.46 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.48 · 8th from 3 matches | (better) 1.73 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | +0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Limassol clean sheet
- 33%
- Aris Limassol 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.6%
- 0:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Olympiakos Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Aris Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Olympiakos Nicosia
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Aris Limassol
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.