Friday, 09/10/2026 at 20:30
5d 18h to kick-offRaków Częstochowa – GKS Katowice
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:22
What the model expects
- Raków Częstochowa
- 38%
- Draw
- 27%
- GKS Katowice
- 35%
| Raków Częstochowa | Draw | GKS Katowice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.60 | 3.72 | 2.89 |
- Total goals
- 3.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
Raków Częstochowa
- Model
- 38.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 43.9%
- Probability gap
- −5.4 pp
- Edge
- −21.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.60
- Market odds
- 2.05 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 24.0%
- Probability gap
- +2.9 pp
- Edge
- +0.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.72
- Market odds
- 3.75 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.91
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.2%
-
GKS Katowice
- Model
- 34.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 32.1%
- Probability gap
- +2.5 pp
- Edge
- −2.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.89
- Market odds
- 2.80 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.03
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.2%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
38% Raków Częstochowa to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 15th
- Raków Częstochowa attack v GKS Katowice defence
- Defence
- 17th vs 4th
- Raków Częstochowa defence v GKS Katowice attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.44 vs -0.22
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.61
- Raków Częstochowa v GKS Katowice
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Raków Częstochowa | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.42 · 12th | (better) 1.77 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 2.36 · 18th | (better) 2.00 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 18th | (better) -0.23 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.93 · 18th | (better) 1.30 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.45 | (better) -0.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Raków Częstochowa clean sheet
- 18%
- Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- GKS Katowice sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Raków Częstochowa
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · GKS Katowice
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.