Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:30
6d 16h to kick-offŚląsk Wrocław – Lech Poznań
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Śląsk Wrocław
- 20%
- Draw
- 26%
- Lech Poznań
- 53%
| Śląsk Wrocław | Draw | Lech Poznań | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.92 | 3.79 | 1.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Śląsk Wrocław
- Model
- 20.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 19.1%
- Probability gap
- +1.2 pp
- Edge
- −3.4%
- Fair odds
- 4.92
- Market odds
- 4.75 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.6%
- Probability gap
- +4.8 pp
- Edge
- +10.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.79
- Market odds
- 4.20 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.98
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
-
Lech Poznań
- Model
- 53.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 59.3%
- Probability gap
- −6.0 pp
- Edge
- −18.3%
- Fair odds
- 1.88
- Market odds
- 1.53 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.97
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Lech Poznań
53% Lech Poznań to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 16th
- Lech Poznań attack v Śląsk Wrocław defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 16th
- Lech Poznań defence v Śląsk Wrocław attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.13 – 1.85
- Śląsk Wrocław v Lech Poznań
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Śląsk Wrocław | Lech Poznań |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.40 · 15th | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 14th | (better) 0.89 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 15th | (better) +1.18 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 15th | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.28 | (better) +1.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Lech Poznań clean sheet
- 29%
- Lech Poznań 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 1:2
- 11.4%
- 0:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Śląsk Wrocław sample
- 9 matches
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Śląsk Wrocław
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Lech Poznań
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- Śląsk Wrocław has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.