Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
13d 14h to kick-offWisła Płock – Radomiak Radom
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wisła Płock
- 50%
- Draw
- 27%
- Radomiak Radom
- 24%
| Wisła Płock | Draw | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.01 | 3.75 | 4.25 |
- Total goals
- 3.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wisła Płock
50% Wisła Płock to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 18th
- Wisła Płock attack v Radomiak Radom defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 10th
- Wisła Płock defence v Radomiak Radom attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.00 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.84 – 1.26
- Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wisła Płock | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 9th | 1.41 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.63 · 12th | 2.05 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.11 · 12th | -0.64 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.30 · 10th | 0.99 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.00 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Wisła Płock clean sheet
- 25%
- Wisła Płock 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.7%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 7.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Radomiak Radom sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wisła Płock
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Radomiak Radom
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.